Economist François Melese cautioned in a Sunday op-ed that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed approach to Social Security could hasten the program’s insolvency.
Why It Matters
Nearly 73 million Americans rely on Social Security benefits, including about 56 million seniors aged 65 or older. Despite decades of contributions by Americans, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is projected to run out of funds for full payments by 2035.
Social Security reform remains a contentious issue in Congress, with lawmakers reluctant to upset beneficiaries while seeking solutions to its funding crisis. Trump has pledged to preserve the program without raising the retirement age or cutting benefits.
Melese’s Concerns
Melese, professor emeritus at the Naval Postgraduate School, explained in the San Francisco Chronicle that the program faces severe strain as retiring Baby Boomers outnumber younger workers entering the labor force.
Trump’s belief that economic growth can sustain Social Security through increased payroll tax revenue faces criticism. Melese cited a report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) that projected Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits could accelerate insolvency to 2031 and reduce benefit payments by one-third by 2035.
Additionally, CRFB warned that Trump’s other policies—such as ending taxes on workers' tips, imposing tariffs, and expanding deportations—would further widen Social Security’s cash deficits.
Proposed Reforms
Melese suggested merging the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program to streamline operations, reduce costs, and improve service for disabled beneficiaries. This consolidation, he argued, could free resources and provide lawmakers the breathing room needed to implement broader reforms.
Political Stances
The Republican National Committee has vowed to protect Social Security without cuts or changes to the retirement age. Trump’s campaign clarified that his references to entitlement reform target waste and inefficiencies, not benefit reductions.
Some Republicans, such as former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, advocate for broader reforms, emphasizing the need to address the program’s financial challenges to avoid future benefit cuts.
What’s Next
Despite Republican control of Congress, significant changes to Social Security appear unlikely in the near term. Trump has reiterated his commitment to protecting the program.
Meanwhile, the recently enacted Social Security Fairness Act, signed by President Biden to increase benefits for 3 million pension workers and their spouses, may face implementation challenges under Trump’s administration. Economist David A. Weaver noted in The Hill that the rushed legislative process leaves unresolved questions about executing the new benefit structure.
As the Social Security debate intensifies, policymakers face mounting pressure to address its looming insolvency without alienating millions of beneficiaries.
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