As Joe Biden's presidency draws to a close, his approval ratings have hit an all-time low.
According to FiveThirtyEight's analysis of polls as of January 13, only 35.6 percent of Americans approve of Biden's performance, while 57.1 percent disapprove, resulting in a net disapproval rating of 21.5 percent.
Why It Matters
Biden's approval ratings have steadily declined since the early months of his term, but these latest figures starkly highlight how his legacy has been tarnished. This places him at risk of leaving office with a lower approval rating than many previous presidents, including Donald Trump. When Trump left office at the end of his first term in 2021, his approval rating stood at 38.6 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Key Insights
In the first year of Biden's presidency, his approval ratings hovered above 50 percent. However, his popularity sharply declined following the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, which resulted in his net approval rating turning negative. Since then, FiveThirtyEight’s tracker has not recorded a positive net approval rating for Biden.
Over the past year, his approval ratings have suffered further due to economic concerns, his handling of immigration, and his support for Israel’s war against Hamas. Despite low approval ratings, Biden initially ran for a second term before ultimately withdrawing. Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him as the Democratic nominee but lost to Trump in November’s election.
In an exit interview with USA Today, Biden expressed confidence that he could have won if he had stayed in the race. “It’s presumptuous to say that, but I think yes,” Biden said, citing polling data.
Public Perception
A recent AP-NORC poll revealed that Americans rate Biden’s presidency less favorably than those of Trump and Barack Obama. Only about a quarter of U.S. adults described Biden as a “good” or “great” president, with fewer than one in 10 rating him as “great.” In comparison, about a third of Americans rated Trump as “good” or “great” at the end of his term, even after the January 6 Capitol insurrection.
Expert Opinions
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, noted that Biden’s approval rating drop aligns with the intense partisan polarization in the U.S. today and recent controversies, such as his decision to reverse a pledge not to pardon his son. Panagopoulos added, “While Biden’s latest approval rating may be at its nadir, it is not significantly different from Trump’s rating at the end of his first term or other one-term presidents, including George H. W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford. Historically, retrospective approval often strengthens over time.”
Thomas Gift, director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, observed that many presidents' legacies improve with time. “While the failures of this administration are fresh in the minds of many Americans now, historians will also highlight Biden’s successes, such as leading the country out of the pandemic and passing a significant infrastructure bill. However, if Biden’s goals included healing polarization, serving as a bridge to the next generation, and defeating Trumpism, it’s clear he fell short.”
Looking Ahead
Biden is scheduled to deliver a farewell address to the nation on Wednesday evening. His presidency officially concludes on January 20.
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