With just over a week before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office for a second term, he is preparing to face a range of complex and volatile conflicts in the Middle East. Known for his "art of the deal" strategy, Trump will navigate the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, as well as tensions involving Iran and its allies, including Saudi Arabia. While diplomacy might seem distant, former officials believe the recent shifts in the region could provide new opportunities for negotiation.
"The challenges are significant in the Middle East, but the opportunities are real," one former official told Newsweek. "They may not be realized, but they’re worth attempting."
What’s ‘The Big Deal’?
Trump's desire for "the big deal" revolves around Iran. His goal is to reshape the region's balance of power by either negotiating or using military means to curb Iran's influence, which has challenged U.S. interests for decades. Another major target is the "Saudi deal," which Trump aims to secure for broader strategic reasons.
The Biden administration has already made progress on a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, which Trump may push forward. Despite his previous success in brokering the 2020 Abraham Accords with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, Trump has yet to address the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a blind spot for U.S. diplomacy.
Escalating Conflicts and the Iran Factor
Tensions escalated in October 2023 with the deadliest war between Israel and Hamas in recent history. Iran’s Axis of Resistance, which includes Hezbollah and other militant groups, played an active role, especially after Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in September and the killing of its leader. Iran has also ramped up its nuclear activities following Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Despite the conflict, Iran has shown interest in dialogue, signaling a potential shift toward negotiations. The internal and external pressures, especially from the recent setbacks in the region, make the environment for talks more favorable than it has been in years.
Douglas Silliman, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, suggested Trump might revive his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, using economic sanctions as leverage in hopes of securing a deal. He sees a potential opening for Trump to negotiate a new nuclear agreement, one that could bear his signature.
Hardliners Within Iran
While reformist leaders like Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian seek diplomatic avenues, ultimate authority rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his hardline supporters, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These factions could push for more aggressive policies, including a nuclear weapons program or strengthening proxy forces in Yemen and Lebanon.
Trump’s incoming administration is expected to include hardline advisers who favor military action and even regime change in Iran. While Trump previously advocated for peace, he took drastic steps such as the 2020 killing of IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani, escalating tensions with Iran. Some experts believe the threat of direct confrontation is now a real possibility.
Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense, suggested that a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities could be considered if Iran is perceived to be advancing toward nuclear weapons. He believes a new agreement is still possible, but trust would need to be established between both sides.
The Road to Riyadh
Another significant challenge is Trump’s pursuit of a Saudi-Israel deal. Saudi Arabia has demanded Israeli support for Palestinian statehood before formalizing ties with Israel, complicating Trump’s efforts. While Trump has close relations with both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aligning their interests on this issue is a complex task.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing war in Gaza. A ceasefire would be a critical step toward any agreement, with Israel needing to cooperate alongside Hamas and Palestinian factions.
Mulroy views a deal involving Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinians as a major objective for Trump’s second term, particularly given the pressure to counter Iran’s influence in the region. Trump has emphasized the importance of peace and prosperity in the Middle East, and Silliman remains hopeful about the potential for deeper engagement.
While tensions are high and the stakes enormous, there is optimism among some observers that Trump’s approach could lead to meaningful diplomatic breakthroughs, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, as the Gaza conflict continues to unfold, the path forward remains uncertain.
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